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Sep 02, 2020 Source: Bloomberg, 05:09. Bloomberg News Equity Market Reporter Felice Maranz talks about JPMorgan’s Kolanovic saying people should prep for rising Trump re-election odds. (Bloomberg) -Investors should position for the rising odds of President Donald Trump winning re-election, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even - largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls, said.

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- As Election Day nears, the possibility of a disputed presidential election is worrying a lot of people. You’ve heard the scenarios: An embittered Donald Trump loses but refuses to leave the Oval Office. An embittered Joe Biden loses but refuses to concede. Absentee ballots that arrive after November 3 aren’t counted. Or they are counted. The angry left takes to the streets. The angry right takes to the streets. Lawyers take to the courts.

Whatever goes wrong — and chances are something will — we will likely be having an argument over the vote count.

Into the pre-election turmoil comes a useful new analysis from the economists Michael Geruso and Dean Spears of the University of Texas, who study and model presidential elections. Last September, I wrote about an earlier paper in which they argued that inversions — where one party wins the popular vote and the other the electoral college — are far more likely than we think.

This time around, Geruso and Spears are warning of a significant chance that the presidential election could be swung by a few thousand disqualified ballots. Their conclusion is stark:

We find that it is much more likely under the Electoral College system than under a hypothetical National Popular Vote that the election outcome will be narrow enough to be reversible by judicial or administrative processes.

How much more likely? The authors performed 100,000 simulations of every presidential election from 1988 through 2016, and found that the chances that the outcome turns on fewer than 10,000 votes in a single state is 4% under the Electoral College system but only 0.1% under a national popular vote. In other words, the chances that local election officials (or judges) can sway the national result by tossing (or including) a few thousand ballots are 40 times greater with the Electoral College.(1)

Think 4% isn’t much? Consider the study’s further conclusion that “the probability that the Electoral College is decided by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, pivotal state is greater than 1-in-10.” That’s right: There’s a 10% chance that the vote count in the state on which the national outcome turns will be that close.

Twenty thousand isn’t an unusually large number of votes for state officials or judges to disqualify. As the authors remind us, in the 2016 presidential contest, Florida rejected almost 22,000 absentee ballots; Arizona disqualified close to 11,000; and Ohio tossed out more than 10,000.

True, in none of those states was the margin of victory that small, and there’s no reason to think that a strong majority of those rejected ballots were cast for one side or the other. But that was 2016. This year, as the nation votes in the middle of a pandemic, a record number of absentee ballots are expected to be cast, most of them by Democrats. In 2020, local officials called upon to figure out which votes to count will find themselves more than ever the center of controversy, with skeptical partisans looking over their shoulders and pouncing on the smallest possibility of error.

Geruso and Spears point out that the Electoral College system is more likely to lead to a disputed result if there is a “tipping point state” — a state that, had it gone the other way, would have led to a different result. Think Florida in 2000, or Ohio in 2004: Had George W. Bush lost either, he would have lost the election.

But tipping point states, the authors note, played quite different roles in those two elections. In 2000, the Florida vote was incredibly close, the state being decided by a contested 537 votes. In 2004, Bush’s victory in Ohio was never in serious question. The likelihood that the election will turn on disputed votes is highest when the result in the tipping point state is close.

The obvious conclusion from all of this is that were we to replace the Electoral College with a system choosing the winner through popular vote, the chances of a disputed result would be much smaller. Point taken. I remain a fan of the current system nevertheless, for all the usual reasons — particularly because the U.S. is geographically diverse, with vastly differing views and interests as you travel from one region to the next. A national popular vote system makes it unnecessary to take regional diversity into account. That would be a loss for democracy.

But even if you think I’m wrong about that, we can surely agree that a disputed election is undesirable. As Geruso and Spears point out in an early footnote, if elections help us process our conflicts without violence, “A tendency to extremely narrow outcomes, in practice, is likely to be a condition that interrupts such processing.” They’re right: If the margin of victory in any state falls within what people instinctively take to be the margin of counting error, they’ll never believe that their candidate lost.

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True, it’s not likely that we’ll live to see a pivotal state turning once more on as few votes as Florida did twenty years ago. Assuming that we continue to hold presidential elections every four years, the authors put the chances of 537 votes in a single state deciding the election at 1 in 50,000. But 20,000 votes? That seems plausible.

Let’s just hope it doesn’t happen this time.

(1) As a check on their calculations, the authors ran similar tests on two earlier eras: the period leading up to the Civil War and the period of Reconstruction.The authors concede that it isn’t “logically necessary” for a disputed election to be more likely under the Electoral College than under a system where the winner is chosen by popular vote.Were there fewer battleground states, the chances of the national outcome turning on a close result in a single state would be much smaller.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Stephen L. Carter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of law at Yale University and was a clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall. His novels include “The Emperor of Ocean Park,” and his latest nonfiction book is “Invisible: The Forgotten Story of the Black Woman Lawyer Who Took Down America's Most Powerful Mobster.”

For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinion

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Who Is Michael Bloomberg?

Michael Bloomberg, the 77-year-old founder and owner of Bloomberg L.P., is a multibillionaire who made his fortune in the financial services and mass media sectors. With a net worth estimated at $53 billion, Bloomberg – nicknamed “Daddy Bloombucks” by supporters and detractors alike – is the ninth richest man in America and 14^th richest man in the world.

Bloomberg’s official political experience is limited to his service as mayor of New York City from 2002-2013, a job for which he switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican. Notably, Bloomberg switched back to the Democratic party after leaving office, and he ran for President as a DNC hopeful.

Bloomberg officially declared his 2020 candidacy on Sunday, November 24, 2019, with roughly three months before the primary voting season got underway. As a result, due to Bloomy’s diminutive stature, President Donald Trump dubbed him “Mini Mike” (not to be confused with “Big Mike,” which is a different controversy all its own).

Mini Mike dropped out of the race on March 4, 2020, after spending more than $500 million dollars on ads. It is likely that he will continue to spend significantly to prevent Bernie Sanders from getting the nomination, and he has endorsed Joe Biden for President in 2020.

Voter Base

Unfortunately, Bloomberg alienated the support of the black community due to various policies instituted during his mayoral years in NYC, and that helped make him non-viable for the DNC’s 2020 aspirations.

Other than that, Bloomberg’s voter base is largely the Democratic rank and file, as he does not seem to appease the extreme left or the so-called Democratic Socialists of the Bernie Sanders set. However, he likely has enough Democrat bona fides to appeal to a large swath of both far left and center-left voters, which he will continue to do on behalf of Biden.

• Undecided voters
• Independents
• Moderates
• Centrists
• Progressives
• Immigrants
• LGBTQ

Betting Odds For Next DNC Candidate To Drop Out

Mini Mike Bloomberg dumped over $500 million into his campaign and dropped out after Super Tuesday. Oddsmakers were right to put him so low on the boards (as seen below in the archival odds from Bovada), but it’s not surprising that with the Biden surge, Bloomberg decided he can be of more use to the establishment behind the scenes.

• Tulsi Gabbard +225
• Amy Klobuchar +250
• Tom Steyer +250
• Elizabeth Warren +900
• Joe Biden +900
• Pete Buttigieg +1500
• Michael Bloomberg +2000
• Bernie Sanders +10000

2020 Super Tuesday Results

Bloomberg only won American Samoa on Super Tuesday. For the full Super Tuesday results, please see our dedicated Super Tuesday page.

2020 South Carolina Primary Results

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2020 Nevada Caucus Results

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2020 New Hampshire Primary Results

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2020 Iowa Caucus Results – Michael Bloomberg

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Michael Bloomberg Odds To Win The 2020 Presidential Election – Does Bloomberg Have A Chance To Win?

Daddy Bloombucks has dropped out, so not any more.

Upon news of Bloomberg’s candidacy, many Democrats were quick to align him with Trump as just “another New York billionaire.” However, legal political betting sites had Bloomberg on their boards for some time (even before he officially announced), so bettors clearly thought he had a solid chance.

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Now that he’s formally out of the race, Bloomers will still likely have an effect on the outcome, as he’s putting his support and financial might behind Joe Biden.

Could A Bloomberg Hillary Ticket Happen?

Recently, there was a lot of buzz about Michael Bloomberg potentially tapping Hillary Clinton to be his running mate. Hillary herself has suggested that she’d be receptive to the idea, and the establishment Democrats would likely have been delighted by the pairing.

Alas, it was not to be, as Mini Mike has dropped out of the race.

Odds Of Michael Bloomberg Winning The Democratic Nomination

For much of the primary debate season, Bloomberg had been featured on the political betting odds boards. However, before he hinted at the possibility that he was actually going to run for POTUS, those odds were hovering in the +12000 to +15000 range. With news that his candidacy was official, sites like Bovada gave him top-tier odds right away. After Super Tuesday, of course, Bloomberg bailed, and his odds are now zero.

Can I Bet On Michael Bloomberg Now?

No. Since Bloomberg dropped out of the race on March 4, there are no longer any betting odds available on his candidacy or presidency for 2020.

What The Current Betting Odds Told Us About Bloomberg’s Chance Of Winning In 2020

Just on speculation alone, prior to his official announcement, Bloomberg’s betting odds surged literally overnight, and he was already among the leading candidates at most sportsbooks, alongside the likes of Presidential candidate Andrew Yang.

Clearly, a large contingent of Democrat voters were less than impressed with the current lot of potential candidates, and a well-spoken, reasoned Bloomberg was thought to be able to easily outshine current favorites like Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden on the Democratic debate stage.

That didn’t happen, as during the run up to Super Tuesday, it became clear that Biden would be the establishment front runner. Thus, Bloomberg has quit his campaign and has endorsed Sleepy Joe.

Michael Bloomberg’s Chances Of Winning Based On Prediction Markets

After a few months of political ads touting his candidacy, there was finally some substantive national polling data for Mini Mike’s chances to win the 2020 Presidency – and they were pretty hopeful. Bettors clearly thought he was a credible and serious candidate, and many of them were likely attracted by his pledge not to seek any campaign contributions, instead electing to fund his run out of his own (very deep) pockets.

Before dropping out, Bloomberg was polling in a strong third place nationally, leapfrogging previous big players like Pete Buttigieg and settling in behind Sanders, Biden, and Warren.

Recent News & Headlines For Michael Bloomberg

In President Trump’s first major speech since leaving the Oval Office in January, he hinted at a 2024 run while also laying out his potential

In the future, if confronted with the statement “your vote doesn’t matter,” be sure to mention the Georgia US Senate elections of 2020-21 as a

The state of Georgia is not known for its political allegiance to the Democratic Party. Most territories in the southeastern United States have

In His Own Words

“Every one of my positions cuts out half the country. I’m pro-choice. I’m pro-gay rights. I’m pro-immigration. I’m against guns. I believe in Darwin.”

Michael Bloomberg’s Running Policies

Michael Bloomberg’s political platforms are something of a mystery outside of his gun control activism, which he has established by bankrolling leading anti-gun organizations like Mayors Against Illegal Guns (MAIG), Everytown for Gun Safety, and Moms Demand Action for Gunsense in America. However, due to Beto O’Rourke’s all-in on gun control (and summary all-out of the Presidential nomination process), it was unclear how hard Bloomberg would campaign on this issue. With an anti-gun Super Bowl ad, however, that question was quickly answered.

All in all, though, Bloomberg seems to believe in the mainstream Democratic points of interest and can be viewed to generally support the following as he campaigns for Biden:

• Tax increases
• Abortion rights
• Free birth control for girls 14+
• Embryonic stem cell research
• Climate change mandates
• Same-sex marriage
• LGBTQ rights
• Public education funding
• Biometric database to track all citizens
• Opposition of deportation of undocumented residents

Michael Bloomberg’s Previous Policies

Bloomberg’s past policies mostly jibe with his current ones, though he has taken some decidedly anti-Democratic positions. Bloomberg famously instituted “stop and frisk” in NYC, allowing police, without cause, to stop and pat down any resident in the city, at any time, for any reason. Some have called this evidence of Mini Mike’s alleged Napoleon complex.

Bloomberg followed up that policy by strengthening NYC’s anti-marijuana laws and banning large sodas in restaurants and stores, which seems like something a “Mini Mike” would do. Those sodas were just too big! Bloomberg has also specifically called for banning minority males from owning firearms, for which he received tremendous flack from both sides of the aisle.

It was difficult in the Democratic debates for Bloomberg to outrun his stop-and-frisk and targeted minority disarmament platforms, and his advocacy for keeping marijuana illegal was an even bigger hurdle. All of these likely contributed to his eventual campaign suspension.

Experience

Michael Bloomberg, like incumbent Donald Trump on the other side of the aisle, made his mark in the private business world. Of course, high finance and entertainment markets have political implications and political structures of their own, and Bloomberg proved adept at running for and winning the coveted NYC mayoral position in three consecutive elections.

Education

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Michael Bloomberg is worth over $55 billion. That’s probably all anyone really needs to know about his education.

However, if you want the specifics, Bloomberg attended Johns Hopkins University in 1961, joined the Phi Kappa Psi fraternity, and graduated in 1964 with a BS in electrical engineering. He then attended Harvard Business School, graduating in 1966 with an MBA. Clearly, Bloomberg put the latter degree to good use.

Civic Work

In addition to serving as mayor of New York City from 2002-2013, Michael Bloomberg is a civic-minded philanthropist. His interests range from environmental advocacy and scholastic leadership initiatives to a host of other causes like anti-tobacco education and biomedical research, to name a few.

Bloomberg is one of the largest charitable and philanthropic donors in the US, and he has given billions of dollars to thousands of different non-profits over the years through his Bloomberg Philanthropies Foundation.

Michael Bloomberg’s Views On Gambling

When it comes to gambling legalization, Bloomberg’s views seem to be in support of states’ rights to build up these industries without federal interference. However, the issue does not figure to be a prominent one during this campaign cycle, and Bloomberg’s pro-gambling stance was not a deciding factor for voters in the primary elections.

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Bloomberg’s stance on domestic gambling legalization clashes somewhat with that of Presidential candidate Andrew Yang who is more in favor of federal regulation over the gambling industry, which in essence overrides the concept of states’ rights on this matter.

How Much Can I Win If I Bet On Michael Bloomberg?

Absolutely nothing. Since Bloombucks dropped out of the race, anyone who bet their own bucks on him lost big. Now, no sportsbook features him on their odds boards, though he still figures to affect the outcome of the race.

Top 5 Reasons Michael Bloomberg’s Chances Of Winning Were Real

One of the main narratives in the DNC nomination process was the lack of a truly voter-energizing candidate. Front-runners like Warren, Biden, and Sanders hadn’t separated themselves from the pack, and there was a real fear that none of them would galvanize their bases like Trump does on the other side. Michael Bloomberg, in this scenario, could have had a real shot. Here are five reasons why:

1. He has the money – They don’t call him Daddy Bloombucks for nothing! With a huge war chest that requires no outside funding, Bloomberg spent virtually without limit on ad buys and astroturf efforts in all 50 states.
2. He owns the news – Bloomberg News is one of the world’s largest news organizations, with magazines, newspapers, television networks, and more. With top-to-bottom control of a large news empire, Bloomberg should have been able to tilt the narrative in his favor.
3. He has the experience – Not that it necessarily matters (given Trump’s ascendancy sans any political experience whatsoever), but Bloomberg was mayor of the most important city in the world for three straight terms. That may have been enough to convince many on-the-fence voters of his political chops had he made it far enough.
4. He has the center-left – One of the complaints about the current Democratic candidates is that they’re all too far to the left to court the massively important centrists that threaten to tip the scales of any major contentious election. Bloomberg could have attracted undecided moderates and progressive-leaning Trump voters better than other candidates.
5. He has the motivation – Bloomberg had toyed with entering Presidential races before, but he deferred each time. Perhaps he was waiting to jump in against a candidate he believes he can beat, or maybe he simply decided that it’s finally time. After all, Bloomberg immensely dislikes Donald Trump, and he’ll also be 78 by the time November 2020 rolls around. It’s now or never. Update: It’s never.

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**This page is not intended to be a public endorsement our only goal is to inform bettors of the current odds found online. Our team strives to provide transparent information that reflects the best qualities of the candidate. Odds and other information provided on this page should only be used to make an informed betting decision.