Iowa Democratic Odds
Just as I did with the 2024 Republican Odds (which you can findhere), I am going to tackle the 2024 Democrat Odds that were recently released and give me thoughts on some of the long shots, the middle of the pack and the favorites.
— The chance of a contested Democratic convention has increased after the muddle of the Iowa caucuses, raising anxieties ahead of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. The 2020 Iowa Caucus: Betting Odds & Suggested Picks by Isaiah Sirois January 31, 2020 The race for the Democratic nomination will officially begin in Iowa on Monday, February 3rd when Iowans head off to caucus. Joe Biden is the odds-on favorite after we simulated the primary election 10,000 times. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks during an event at Iowa.
Joe Biden would be 81-years-old in 2024, would he run again? I don’t think so, and would Kamala would be in line to be his successor, but will that mean she will become the Democratic nominee? I am not sold quite yet.
Long Shot
Michael Bloomberg (+2000) made some noise early on as he threw over $500 million at the election to try to become the Democratic Nominee. We also saw him throw hundreds of millions more in support of the Democrats/Biden to help push President Trump out of office. Bloomberg would be 82-years-old come 2024, I don’t think he is a player, but I believe he can impact who he buys into this election.
Pete Buttigieg (+1500) intrigues me at this price. Nobody expected him to run as well as he did, and he won the Iowa Presidential Caucuses this year, and he is a younger face that could be the face of Democrats for years to come. Pete aligns with a lot of what the newer generation is seeking in a Democratic Candidate. I do think he would be a good VP if he is unable to snag the Presidential Nominee.
Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are both +1200 but they will be 84 and 75 respectively around the time primaries start to kick in. I am not sure either of which will run but again like Bloomberg, they can push a candidate with their backing to the next level.
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus. 2024 Presidential Election Odds to Win the 2024 Presidential Election All wagers have action. Others on request. Market settled once the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. Any result uncertainty will delay settlement until Congress announce Electoral College votes.
Wild Card
Andrew Yang +800, while the business leader made a splash upon the trails in 2020, he does lack the political aspect of the other fellow candidates within not holding any office yet. I expect him to give this another go, and Yang has some pull within him because of the simple fact that he has helped the party (while criticizing) within this election with Joe Biden and moving down to Georgia to help with the run-offs. I like Yang a lot, but I am not sure he will ever get the backing from the Democratic party to get the bid.
Iowa Democratic Odds Presidential
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (+600) is an interesting name, and as you see in her odds. She is a very vocal leader in this new wave and next-generation, and she is afraid of any challenges placed in front of her. I would be intrigued to see if she would be willing to run in 2024 and challenge Kamala, but if she gets the right momentum and as my friend Shane pointed out, she could be that new with Bernie out of the fold leader, especially if she gets his backing.
Front Runner
Kamala Harris has the best odds at +300 among the entire listing and not much of a surprise with Biden saying he feels more like a transition candidate and with her now being Vice-President Elect. She is set to be the first Woman-POC to hold as high as office as she is, which would set the tone for her campaign. Harris would have four years of being inside the White House under her belt, and how Biden and her handle the Pandemic, Economy, and Social Injustice over the next four years will be telling within whether or not she is going to be that ahead of the pact.
I have been on record stating I have issues with Kamala, and I don’t think she is a viable candidate for the seat as she wouldn’t be my choice, but it’s not up to me. If she has a strong four years with Biden in office, do the Democrats throw their weight behind her and try to win the election? But my biggest question is, ‘Can she win?’ and I am not sure she can.
Iowa Democratic Odds By Age
Right now, she is in the driver seat to represent the Democrats in the 2024 election, who do you think is? Who would you like to see in the slot in 2024?
Iowa Democratic Odds 2019
Governors of seventeen states have issued shelter-in-place orders to slow the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). But Governor Kim Reynolds again maintained on March 24 that data do not support that action in Iowa. She and top Iowa Department of Public Health officials are betting that closures already in place, along with official efforts to encourage social distancing, will be sufficient to keep serious COVID-19 infections from overwhelming our health care system. A growing number of local leaders disagree. People who contract the virus may be asymptomatic for about a week and can spread the disease, Cownie noted in his call for a statewide order. Meanwhile, Iowans continue to flock to stores and gather in parks, raising questions about whether they are taking the situation seriously enough. “I’m concerned that if we don’t act now, we’re going to see an outbreak here not unlike what is being seen in Chicago or Washington,” Cownie said. “We’re ahead of it right now, but we need to act.” Cownie said he is unsure if local officials like him have the authority to issue a stay-at-home order, a question he said is under review. Iowa City Mayor Bruce Teague also supports state action, Jason Clayworth and Katie Akin reported. Johnson County has the most COVID-19 cases in Iowa, and Polk County the second-highest total. Cedar Rapids Mayor Brad Hart wrote to Reynolds on March 24 “asking her to reconsider her decision not to issue a statewide shelter-in-place order,” Brian Morelli reported for the Cedar Rapids Gazette. Democratic State Senator Rob Hogg, who represents part of Cedar Rapids, has been calling for a statewide “hard quarantine” for several days. https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2020/03/24/iowa-governor-local-officials-at-odds-over-shelter-in-place-order/ The governor’s stance is that local officials can take that step if they want to. |